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April 19, 2024

Farooq Pasha and Zubin Sethna engaged in an interactive session at the OICCI on April 19, 2024, focusing on the 'IMF and Economic Outlook of Pakistan'. During the discussion, they highlighted the challenges facing developed markets, where private credit and lending activities have slowed, impacting overall economic activity.

Initial expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed have significantly diminished, underscoring the uncertainty prevailing in financial markets. Despite divergent forecasts, there's a consensus favoring a more cautious approach. A year ago, negative real interest rates were prevalent across most regions, including Pakistan. However, recent data indicates a shift, with Pakistan experiencing positive real rates since February. This shift isn't unique to Pakistan but is observed globally.

This transition to positive real rates suggests a broader trend signaling potential stability in inflation and monetary policy across developed and developing economies.

Furthermore, the economic dialogue also explored Pakistan's potential growth following the IMF SBA approval. The latest IMF forecast anticipates fiscal consolidation in Pakistan through expenditure rationalization measures.